AIACC: Contributing to a Second Generation of Climate Change Assessments
An Editorial Article Written by Neil Leary, Science Director, AIACC

The recent assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) heightened recognition that developing countries are highly vulnerable to climate change, but that there continue to exist substantial gaps in understanding of their vulnerabilities and their capacities to adapt¹. Yet in many of these countries, there is a strong need for improved scientific and technical capacity to conduct the integrated, multi-disciplinary regional investigations necessary to fill these gaps. A major new initiative, Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC), aims to fill the gaps in scientific and technical capacity as well as in knowledge about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations². The AIACC initiative, funded by the Global Environment Facility, is a joint project of START, the Third World Academy of Sciences, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the IPCC.

Under AIACC, twenty regional studies are being funded to carry out three-year investigations of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in developing countries. More than 100 scientists from 25 developing countries will participate in these studies.

The studies were selected from more than 140 submitted proposals through a highly competitive peer review process. The twenty selected studies, which include 8 in Africa, 5 in Asia, 5 in Latin America and 2 in Small Island States, are diverse in their objectives and scientific methods. But they all share three things in common. First, each has strong scientific merit. Second, each will emphasize investigation of climate change adaptation with the purpose of strengthening the information base for making decisions about adaptation. And third, each will enhance scientific and technical capacity in their region for integrated, multidisciplinary, regional assessment of environmental problems.

The capacity building will result from the experience and skills that will be gained by knowledgeable, established scientists in developing countries working together with experts in other disciplines to execute an integrated, regional assessment. It will result from the engagement of junior researchers in these projects under the guidance of more experienced researchers. It will result from the development and sharing of data, expertise, methods and tools across the study teams. It will also result from more formal training and mentoring activities being offered through AIACC.

Investigators from all of the AIACC regional studies met 11-15 February 2002 at UNEP Headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya to launch their projects. During the meeting, participants discussed and debated new directions in scientific methods that are moving toward a "second generation" of climate change assessments. Topics included frameworks and methods for assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation; methods for integrating stakeholders with science in the assessment process; application of risk assessment approaches to climate change hazards; and scenarios of future socioeconomic and environmental conditions and their integration with climate scenarios.

The discussions encouraged participants to consider how emerging assessment methods might be adopted and applied in their own projects. All were challenged to approach their study plans with fresh eyes by asking questions such as:

• Who is vulnerable to, or made more vulnerable by, climate change?
• What are the sources and nature of their vulnerability?
• What are the capacities to cope with recent climate variability and extremes and what are the lessons for adapting to future climate change?
• Who needs information to develop and implement strategies to adapt and thereby lessen vulnerability?
• What information do they need?
• How can users of the information be engaged in the production of that information so as to assure that it has credibility and relevance for their needs?

Beginning with the above questions leads to a new or second generation approach to climate change assessment. The first generation assessments began with a different set of questions:

• How will the climate change?
• What will be the hydrological, biological and other "first order" effects of the projected changes in climate?
• How will these first order effects impact humans?
• How might humans adapt?
• How might these adaptations alter the impacts?

These questions lead to assessments that are characterized by model simulations of impacts for selected climate scenarios, usually derived from general circulation models³. The first generation assessments were necessary and important steps that have provided windows through which we can see how different sectors, systems and communities might be impacted by climate change. But the view from these windows is constrained to specific scenarios and may miss key vulnerabilities. Adaptation comes at the end of a chain of analysis, most often as a sensitivity study designed to explore how impacts might vary for different assumptions about adaptation responses. In consequence, the first generation assessments generally produced little information about the capacity of different communities to adapt and little that is of direct relevance and utility for developing adaptation strategies.

A second generation of assessment that places vulnerability and adaptation at the center of the assessment is now emerging⁴. Second generation assessments seek to identify the sources of vulnerability, for example by investigating the ranges of climate variability and the frequencies and magnitudes of extremes with which communities have coped in the past and might be able to cope with in the future. They evaluate the risks that climate change may push variability and extremes beyond the bounds of coping ranges. They examine the resources (economic, social, and political) presently or potentially available to a community and assess its capacity to adapt to change. They evaluate opportunities for, impediments to, and effectiveness and costs of adaptation responses. And they involve stakeholders in the assessment process.

The outcome of the discussions of assessment methods is yet to be seen. Discussions will continue in the coming months, with two upcoming AIACC workshops providing key opportunities. The goal is not to achieve uniformity of method across the AIACC projects. Rather, it is to encourage researchers to examine a range of approaches and to adopt those that are most appropriate for the objectives of their project. It is likely that some of the project teams will select methods akin to the first generation assessments, while others will push the envelope of second-generation assessments.

But notably, all of the AIACC projects already incorporate some elements of second generation assessments in their initial research plans. Each includes assessment of adaptation as a central task. Several propose to examine recent observations of climate variability and impacts to better understand adaptive capacity and vulnerability to climate variability, and to draw on this evidence to investigate vulnerability to climate change. Many will explore future adaptive capacity using a range of socioeconomic scenarios. And several include activities for stakeholder engagement. From this initial orientation toward assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation, AIACC can be expected to make a major contribution to the evolution of second-generation assessments.

1. J. McCarthy et al., eds, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

2. Klaus Töpfer, Executive Director of UNEP, statement to GEF/STAP Expert Group Workshop in Adaptation and Vulnerability, Nairobi, Kenya, 18 - 20 February 2002.

3 See Carter et al., 1994, IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, for a description of methods of the first generation assessments.

4. Richard Klein and Tom Downing, Towards an international funding strategy for climate adaptation, presented at GEF/STAP Expert Group Workshop in Adaptation and Vulnerability, Nairobi, Kenya, 18 – 20 February 2002.