Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) in Multiple Regions and Sectors

Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) is a global initiative developed in collaboration with the UNEP/WMO Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and funded by the Global Environment Facility to advance scientific understanding of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options in developing countries. By funding collaborative research, training and technical support, AIACC aims to enhance the scientific capacity of developing countries to assess climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations, and generate and communicate information useful for adaptation planning and action. AIACC is implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme and executed jointly by START and the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS). In addition to the funding from the Global Environmental Facility, collateral funding has been provided by the United States Agency for International Development, the Canadian International Development Agency, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the World Bank. Substantial in-kind support has been donated by participating institutions in developing countries.

Filling Gaps in Scientific Knowledge and Capacity
The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC highlighted that developing countries are highly vulnerable to climate change. Yet gaps exist in understanding the nature of this vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation. Furthermore, in many of these countries, there is a need for improved scientific and technical capacity to conduct the integrated, multi-disciplinary regional investigations necessary to fill these gaps.

AIACC aims to fill these gaps by funding, training, and mentoring developing country scientists to undertake multi-sector, multi-country research of priority to developing countries. The research activities will address a range of questions about vulnerabilities to climate change and multiple other stresses, their implications for human development, and policy options for responding. The information, knowledge, tools and skills that will be produced by AIACC research will enhance the ability of developing countries to assess their vulnerabilities and adaptation options.

Research-Driven Capacity Building in Developing Countries
AIACC takes an approach to capacity building that is research driven. The most important component of the AIACC capacity building program is the expertise that scientists will gain through participation in multidisciplinary research teams working on joint 3-year research projects of their own design. The research experience is supplemented by a program developed with input from the regional study participants that includes training, mentoring and networking with participating scientists for mutual assistance.

Funding Research to Support Adaptation Decisions
AIACC is providing financial support to 24 regional study teams to conduct three-year investigations of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in 46 developing countries. The studies were selected from more than 150 submitted proposals through a competitive peer review process. Participating in these studies are 235 developing country scientists and more than 60 graduate and undergraduate students.

The AIACC regional studies are diverse in their objectives, scientific methods, and in the sectors and systems to be investigated. These include, among others, food security, water resources, livelihood security, and human health. Despite this diversity, the studies share a common "second generation" assessment approach that places understanding vulnerability at the center of the assessment, engages stakeholders in the assessment process, and gives priority to strengthening the information base for making decisions about adaptation to climate change.

Moving Toward a Second Generation of Climate Change Assessments
A first generation of climate change assessments sought to understand how climate might change and what would be the likely impacts. These studies revealed that impacts would differ for different people, places and times, prompting a new set of questions. Who is vulnerable to harm from climate change and why are they vulnerable? Will these vulnerabilities exacerbate, or be exacerbated by, other environmental and social changes that stress societies? How can people adapt and lessen their vulnerability to climatic and other stresses?

A second generation of assessments is emerging which focuses on these and similar questions while engaging stakeholders in the assessment process to help focus research on local and regional priorities. Second-generation assessments examine vulnerability by analyzing exposures to stresses, including climate change, the sensitivities of exposed people and systems to the stresses, their capacities to cope and adapt, and their resilience or recovery potential. They also evaluate the range of response options for reducing risks.

The regional studies funded under the AIACC project include elements of first generation assessments, but take the state of the science one step further to incorporate elements of second generation assessments. These elements include evaluation of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies, use of observed impacts of recent climate variability to understand present vulnerabilities, use of socioeconomic scenarios to investigate multiple and interacting future stresses, and engagement of stakeholders. From this initial orientation toward assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation, AIACC can be expected to make a major contribution to the evolution of second-generation assessments.

Global environmental change vulnerabilities, risks, and responses: a framework for "second generation" assessment.

Training
The training component was initiated with a series of three workshops in 2002. International teams that included experts from the IPCC and other organizations provided training in methods and tools for assessing vulnerability and adaptation and constructing scenarios of climate and socioeconomic conditions. The training emphasized the second-generation approach to assessment. Participants were encouraged to rethink and revise the scientific designs of their projects. The workshops also provided opportunities for participants to discuss their projects and learn from each other. Additional training activities are being planned. The 2002 workshops included:

• A project-launching workshop hosted by UNEP in Nairobi, Kenya in February 2002.
• A scenarios workshop hosted and co-organized by the Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, UK, in April 2002.
• A vulnerability and adaptation workshop hosted by TWAS in Italy and co-organized by the Stockholm Environment Institute – Oxford.

Mentoring
The regional study teams have been aided in their early efforts to plan and initiate their projects by a team of AIACC Mentors. The mentors, drawn from both developing and developed countries, will assist the study teams throughout the AIACC project. The mentors will advise regional study teams on the selection and application of data, methods, models and scenarios for climate change assessment, help study teams to troubleshoot problems as they arise, and direct teams to other sources of expertise as needed. An important function of the mentors will be to encourage and facilitate publication of AIACC study results in peer-reviewed journals. In addition, a searchable database of international experts in the field is currently under development.

Networking
Regional workshops are being planned for early 2003 and 2004 in Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean. The regional workshops will bring together AIACC mentors, regional study participants, and invited researchers and stakeholders from the region. Participants will present papers from their research, share advice for next steps, collaborate across study teams to solve common problems, plan for joint publications, and consult with mentors and other experts about their projects. In addition to the workshops, regional study team members will also provide technical support to each other through an active AIACC on-line discussion group. The workshops and discussion group will help to establish regional networks of scientists who can collaborate and support each other in continuing investigations of global change.

Project Management and Oversight
The project is managed by the AIACC Science Director and Project Coordinator at START with the support of staff at UNEP and TWAS and overseen by the AIACC Implementing Committee. A Steering Committee has been established to provide general advice to the AIACC project and to build links with other GEF-funded projects. The AIACC Technical Committee, including a Scenarios Advisory Group, provides guidance on project design, assessment methods, scenario development and use, training, and selection of projects.

Steering Committee:
Rajendra Pachauri (Chair), IPCC Chair
Alan Miller, GEF Secretariat
Osvaldo Canziani, IPCC WGII Co-Chair
Martin Parry, IPCC WGII Co-Chair
Renate Christ, IPCC Secretariat
Halldor Thorgeirsson, SBSTA Chair
Raul Estrada, SBI Chair
Martha Perdomo, UNFCCC Secretariat
Saleemul Huq, GEF/STAP
Robert Watson, World Bank
Ajay Mathur, World Bank
Bo Lim, UNDP
Ravi Sharma, UNEP
Mohamed Hassan, TWAS
Roland Fuchs, START
Barbara Göbel, IHDP (ex-officio)
David Carson, WCRP (ex-officio)
Will Steffen, IGBP (ex-officio)